Seattle’s centrist leaders are on thin ice and could be facing an electoral collapse in 2025.
Centrists, backed by The Seattle Times Editorial Board and Downtown business groups, were given a chance to govern Seattle in the last four years. In 2021, Seattleites elected a corporate-backed centrist governing majority with Mayor Bruce Harrell, City Council President Sara Nelson, Republican City Attorney Ann Davison; and shortly after, a new centrist supermajority in City Council.
Now ahead of their 2025 re-election, they have failed to deliver in the eyes of most Seattleites.
In last November’s 2024 elections, Seattleites voted out centrist incumbent Councilmember Tanya Woo by 58-42%. Her opponent, newly-elected progressive Councilmember Alexis Mercedes Rinck, beat her by earning more votes than any sitting Seattle official — possibly ever. Now as the only progressive in City Hall, Rinck is the only Seattle official with a positive approval rating.
In contrast, only 38% of Seattleites approve of Mayor Harrell’s job performance, 22% approve of Council President Nelson’s, and 29% approve of City Attorney Davison; plus, the poll found negative approval ratings for every moderate councilmember. City Council now has a negative -50% approval rating in 2023, down by 21% compared to the previous Council ahead of the 2021 elections that swept Nelson into power.
Progressives aren’t just winning because moderate incumbents are unpopular; progressive policies are popular, too. Last month, Seattleites reaffirmed their support for the progressive social housing program 73-27% against the moderate Council’s attacks; in the same vote, Seattleites supported funding social housing by taxing large corporations (63-37%) over the Council’s proposal to defund government services.
How did Seattleites sour on centrist politicians so quickly after electing them in 2021?
Moderates were elected in 2021 for largely one reason: public safety. Public safety was the number one issue in the 2021 election and remains a top priority today. After four years of moderate leadership, voters are unhappy with how Seattle is addressing crime: only 29% of voters approve of Harrell’s handling of crime.
Despite an electoral mandate and a Council supermajority, centrists have failed to deliver on the primary reason voters elected them. Perhaps it’s unpopular to pour taxpayers’ money into a dysfunctional Seattle Police Department (SPD), an organization 64% of Seattleites dislike, without accountability to ensure SPD is actually using that money effectively to respond to Seattleites’ needs. Reckless spending without accountability does not deliver results.
Beyond public safety, Seattleites don’t trust centrist incumbents on other top priorities either. Affordability, particularly housing affordability, is a top concern among Seattleites. February’s election results demonstrate voters’ overwhelming support for progressive solutions to increase (publicly-owned) housing supply to bring costs down; and Seattleites want to fund it by taxing big business, not gutting city services we all rely on.
Finally with a new White House, Seattleites may prefer a bold progressive majority to combat threats from Donald Trump. Indeed, it’s been progressives who’ve led the fight against anti-abortion, anti-LGBT attacks from national Republicans. Like his first term, Seattleites overwhelmingly voted against Trump and disapproved of his first weeks in office. Subsequently, progressives won the vast majority of municipal contests in 2017 and 2019 during his first term.
If history holds, Seattleites may elect a bolder, more progressive mayor and city council to combat Trump’s right-wing efforts to slash public services, end LGBT protections, and exacerbate inflation and unaffordability. Perhaps gutting government programs to serve tech billionaires’ interests is just as unpopular when Harrell and Nelson do it as when Trump and Elon Musk do.
One extra race is up in 2025 due to the resignation of Tammy Morales, who cited mistreatment by her centrist colleagues. The move puts District 2 on the ballot this fall to fill her seat for the next two years. Despite District 2 voting against him by 21% in favor of Morales, the centrist council appointed fellow centrist Mark Solomon to fill her seat on an interim basis. The seven district-based council seats will be up in 2027, with the Trump Administration still likely to be rampaging and firing up the progressive base.
As the centrist council president and mayor faces voters this year, their re-election chances may be served well by responding to Seattleites’ opposition to their policies. Seattleites want more social housing, not less; progressive taxation on tech giants, not austerity budget cuts; and an accountable police department that delivers results, not unchecked reckless police spending and poor oversight.
If the current government won’t deliver these priorities, voters may deliver pink slips to this batch of centrist leaders in November.
Andrew Hong
Andrew Hong is a data science student at Stanford University and lifelong Washingtonian from South Seattle. He has previously worked as a campaign consultant, community organizer, statewide coordinator of Redistricting Justice for Washington, and currently serves as a Research Data Analyst at the Washington Community Alliance Data Hub.
