Seattle voters are backing progressives and rejecting the centrist coalition that swept into power in 2023, amid several wayward initiatives.
The 2024 election is upon us, and Seattle voters have a unique opportunity to weigh in on a Seattle City Council race in an even-year ballot. Normally, Seattle municipal election are held in odd-numbered years when voter turnout is significantly lower, especially among renters and people of color. While the previous two elections were favorable to centrists, progressive Alexis Mercedes Rinck had a strong showing in the August primary. Rinck gained more than 50% of the vote, suggesting she is the favorite to prevail in November.
Ballots have already dropped for the general election, as has The Urbanist endorsements, which included a nod for Rinck. The Seattle City Council citywide Position 8 seat is on the ballot since interim Councilmember Tanya Woo is only serving in an interim capacity since she was appointed in January to fill the seat was held by Teresa Mosqueda. Mosqueda won election to King County Council last year, and the City charter dictates appointees can only serve until the next election, when they must seek a voter mandate or pass the baton.
The primary election data suggests Woo will likely be passing the baton, but maybe not for the reason one might expect. While turnout was up from 36.4% in the 2023 primary to 43.7% this year, the composition of the electorate was very similar. The bigger turnout boost typically happens in the even-year general election, when turnout can approach double that of a odd-year.
Washington Community Alliance (WCA) conducted an analysis that found Seattle’s primary electorate in 2024 was very similar demographically to the 2023 electorate. WCA data analyst Andrew Hong concluded that a shift in voter preferences explained the swing toward the progressive candidate, rather than a surge in turnout among more progressive voters.
Indeed, progressive Rinck beat moderate Woo 50-38%. However, Rinck didn’t win because the electorate looked demographically different. Apparently, at least in the 2024 primary, a significant subset of Seattleites switched sides and backed labor-friendly progressives over business-friendly centrists.
“This is a pretty stark change in the numbers we’re seeing in terms of the moderate-progressive divide in Seattle politics,” Hong told The Urbanist. “I think it was a 13- or 14-point margin between Woo and Mercedes Rinck in the primary. That’s pretty significant, especially compared to similar five to 10 or even more percentage point victories for Bruce Harrell and moderate city council candidates in 2023.”
Mayor Bruce Harrell’s landslide 17-point victory in 2021 was followed up with the more conservative candidate winning six of seven races in 2023. That doesn’t appear to be where voters are at any more, however.
“The data in the article showed that the demographics of who turned out to vote this year weren’t substantively different from last year’s primary,” Hong added. “And so the result differences aren’t because people, there are different people voting is because the same people, roughly demographically, are just voting for a different candidate: the progressive.
Part of what’s happening in Seattle elections is now moderates are caught holding the bag, so to speak, and voters are still not thrilled with the direction of the city. Thus, we could be in a for a “change” election in a different direction, in which voter mood is against Council incumbents, who have promised big results via a thinly sketched out centrist policy platform, but haven’t delivered much progress thus far.
“Now that moderates have not just control over the mayor, but also the city council, voters are still unhappy with how the city’s trending,” Hong said. “So voters want a change election in Seattle. So, they’re going to vote for progressives who are in the minority. I would agree that that’s probably a factor that explains at least some of the shift.”
If this voter shift is durable, that could spell trouble for Mayor Bruce Harrell and City Council President Sara Nelson as the pair of centrists each seek second terms in 2025. Of course, progressives still have to close the deal in 2024 and put similarly strong candidates up to challenge the centrists next year.
Rinck is running an energetic and poised campaign, forging a strong coalition uniting key progressive blocs, such as labor, social justice advocates, urbanists, and environmentalists, while not alienating middle-of-the-road Democrats. Woo has not been the toughest opponent a progressive has faced, as evidenced by the fact she was the only centrist to lose in 2023, falling to incumbent Tammy Morales.
Woo needed her centrist allies to appoint her to get the keys to City Hall, and in the process her reputation was sullied with centrist powerbroker Tim Ceis implying she was a bought candidate who would be loyal to him and his donors. So far, that loyalty has largely been on display, with Council — with Woo’s support — advancing initiatives to repeal progressive policy wins, like minimum wage hikes for tipped workers and delivery drivers. The centrists have also sought to defund and sabotage the the City’s new social housing public developer before it’s even gotten off the ground.
Voters, it would appear, are looking for new leaders with different priorities. And the even-year election will be a much broader sample of the electorate to see where the majority stands.
Even if there’s evidence that it was not the even-year dynamic that is swinging the Seattle City Council race this year, the case for even-year election reform remains on democratic grounds. The WCA has urged cities and counties to move their local races to even years.
“There are more people voting for Seattle City Council this August than there were in August 2023, and that’s the fundamental reason why WCA is fighting for even-year elections,” Hong said. “Democracy works better when more people vote, and more people vote on even years. And especially in local seats, you want to make sure that more as many people as possible are having to say in who’s elected.”
King County has queued up even-year election reform after County Councilmember Claudia Balducci proposed the move. In contrast, Seattle has so far resisted such a move, though it would first need approval from the Washington State Legislature, unlike the County, to make it happen. Despite support in the state house, the state senate has so far balked at granting that power to cities, preferring less democratic, low-turnout odd-year local elections.
Doug Trumm is publisher of The Urbanist. An Urbanist writer since 2015, he dreams of pedestrianizing streets, blanketing the city in bus lanes, and unleashing a mass timber building spree to end the affordable housing shortage and avert our coming climate catastrophe. He graduated from the Evans School of Public Policy and Governance at the University of Washington in 2019. He lives in East Fremont and loves to explore the city on his bike.